Bangkok floods threaten China Golden Week arrivals; Phuket not directly affected

The Tourism Authority of Thailand (TAT) has warned that flooding in Bangkok could reduce Chinese tourist arrivals during the 2026 Golden Week holiday by 5-10%, while saying Phuket has not been directly affected and continues to receive visitors normally.

TAT Governor Thapanee Kiatphaibool said Bangkok had recorded 300-330 millimetres of accumulated rainfall in less than 72 hours, prompting disaster declarations across all 50 districts. More than 52,000 households were affected and nearly 4,900 people moved into temporary shelters.

The TAT’s Chengdu office described the situation as a “perception crisis” rather than a collapse in tourism demand. Images of flooded roads and vehicles circulated widely on Chinese platforms including WeChat, Weibo, Xiaohongshu, Douyin, Toutiao and Baidu News.

Suvarnabhumi and Don Mueang airports remained open, with no airspace closure or widespread flight cancellations reported. Travellers were advised to allow an additional two to three hours for journeys between hotels and airports because of road disruption.

The TAT said major destinations outside Bangkok, including Phuket, Krabi, Koh Samui, Chiang Mai and Chiang Rai, were not directly affected and continued to receive tourists as normal. Phuket, Krabi and Koh Samui are expected to face limited impact because they remain popular destinations among travellers from western China. Many travellers from Xinjiang also travel directly to beach destinations including Phuket, according to the TAT’s regional assessment.

The impact varies across western Chinese markets. The TAT assessed the effect as moderate in Sichuan, including Chengdu, and low to moderate in Chongqing. It said families and older travellers in Shaanxi could be more sensitive to safety concerns, while emerging outbound markets in Gansu, Qinghai and Ningxia could be more influenced by online images of flooding.

The TAT had previously forecast about 250,000 Chinese visitors during the 2026 Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day Golden Week period, generating approximately B11.5 billion in tourism revenue.

Its base-case scenario, given a 60% probability, is for flooding in Bangkok to ease by September 30, with arrivals from western China falling 5-10% below the original target. In the best-case scenario, assigned a 20% probability, the decline could be limited to 5%. If heavy rain returns on September 29-30 and flooding persists, the TAT estimates arrivals could fall 15-20% below target.

The TAT has launched a confidence-building campaign on Chinese social media to reassure prospective visitors that Thailand remains open for tourism.