Global tourism encounters extreme headwinds

Global tourism faces mounting challenges as the Pacific Asia Travel Association (PATA) projects inbound arrivals to the Asia Pacific region will surpass pre-pandemic levels from 2026, with numbers potentially reaching 761.2 million by 2028. The PATA Asia Pacific Visitor Forecasts 2026-2028, released this week, also highlights significant downside risks, warning that ongoing geopolitical tensions and Middle East hostilities could limit arrivals to 599.7 million—about 88% of 2019 levels. The report, developed with the Hospitality and Tourism Research Centre at SHTM PolyU, offers detailed projections for 39 destinations, including Phuket.

Scenario-Based Forecasts and Recovery Patterns

PATA’s study outlines two contrasting scenarios for regional tourism growth, shaped by global instability and shifting travel demand. The baseline scenario anticipates strong regional momentum, while a lower-bound scenario accounts for continued conflicts and economic uncertainty.

Mongolia, Japan, Chile, the Maldives, and Sri Lanka are identified as leaders in recovery performance. Japan and Hong Kong SAR have improved their destination rankings since the pandemic, according to the report.

Industry Risks and Strategic Recommendations

The analysis points to structurally constrained and uneven growth, with factors such as climate disruptions, evolving aviation and visa policies, and rapid digital transformation affecting the sector. China, the United States, and Türkiye are projected to remain the top three destinations through 2028.

PATA urges destinations to diversify source markets and strengthen public–private partnerships to increase resilience. Individual destination reports provide localised analysis, with China, Hong Kong SAR, the United States, and Korea (ROK) still among the leading source markets despite air capacity and cost pressures.

Source: https://www.ttrweekly.com/site/2026/04/global-tourism-encounters-extreme-headwinds/